Transboundary Waters in the Shadow of Climate Change: Dynamics of Conflict and Cooperation
İstanbul Beykent University, Türkiye
Abstract
This study investigates how hydrological uncertainties triggered by climate change
structurally alter traditional dynamics of conflict and cooperation in transboundary
water basins. In contrast to classical approaches that view transboundary waters
solely as a matter of resource allocation, this article examines the issue through a
critical literature review grounded in the concepts of hydro-hegemony, transaction
costs, and the water-energy-food nexus. Our research demonstrates that the
climate crisis exerts two fundamentally opposing effects on riparian states. On the
one hand, increasing water stress is deepening existing power imbalances and
leading powerful states to securitise water as a strategic leverage tool and pursue
unilateral mega-infrastructure projects. On the other hand, the shared risk of
destruction posed by climate shocks is pushing countries to break free from narrow
political frameworks and move toward transparent data sharing and mandatory
regional cooperation. Consequently, this study explains why countries cannot reach
consensus in diplomacy by citing information asymmetry and high transaction costs
at the negotiating table; it proposes a new, multidimensional approach to
watershed management that centres on shared benefits, flexible institutional
structures, and historical justice, rather than static water quotas. Sustainable watershed management is possible only through multidimensional approaches that prioritise historical justice and flexible institutional resilience.
Keywords
How to Cite
Mehmet Hanifi Kaya. (2026). Transboundary Waters in the Shadow of Climate Change: Dynamics of Conflict and Cooperation. The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development, 16(2), 302–311.
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